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The start of the new NFL season is underway, meaning extensions and deals with unrestricted free agents are coming in fast.
The PFF Free Agency Live Deal Grader will break down all the news using PFF’s play-by-play grading system along with team situations and contract details, and we'll assign each deal one of six grades: Elite, Very Good, Above Average, Average, Below Average or Poor. Those ratings will be updated throughout the week as additional news comes in.
For even more information about the best free agents on the market, monitor PFF's free agent rankings, which include contract projections, wins above replacement, PFF grades and analysis.
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT
EDGE J.J. Watt: Two years, $28 million deal ($23 million guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
The Cardinals came out of nowhere to sign Watt, but it’s not difficult to see why they coveted him. Watt isn't the peerless force of his early-career days, but he is still very much one of the best defensive linemen in the league.
His 0.50 PFF wins above replacement in 2020 ranked third among all edge defenders, behind only Khalil Mack and T.J. Watt. Whether J.J. Watt lines up between the tackles or outside of them, there is every reason to expect him to cause disruption in a defensive front that also features Chandler Jones.
This deal makes him just the 10th-highest-paid interior defensive lineman, and he ranks even further down the list among edge defender contracts. It’s certainly not an overpay on Arizona's part.
EDGE Markus Golden: Two years, $9 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
Following a brief stint with the New York Giants, Golden returned to Arizona via trade during the 2020 season and enjoyed a successful campaign. He picked up a 77.6 pass-rushing grade with an impressive 17.4% pressure rate in his nine games with the team. He now has consecutive seasons with at least 50 quarterback pressures, giving Arizona yet another legitimate pass-rushing option outside.
The Cardinals clearly made it a goal coming into the offseason to prioritize adding help for Chandler Jones off the edge. With J.J. Watt the first big domino to fall this offseason, the Cardinals now retain Golden, who was acquired for a sixth-round pick at the trade deadline. He’s much better suited as the third option in Arizona, with two potential future Hall of Famers commanding opposing offense linemen’s attention.
This deal shouldn’t preclude further moves necessarily, but with cornerback Patrick Peterson potentially on the way out of Arizona, the Cardinals now need to shift their attention to improving their secondary.
G Kevin Zeitler: Three years, $22.5 million ($16 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
Zeitler instantly became one of the best guards on the market when he was released earlier this month by the Giants. He’s coming off a down season by his standards with New York in 2020, but his 65.9 overall grade was still the top mark of any member of that offensive line.
Zeitler has consistently been one of the best pass-protecting interior offensive linemen in the league, posting 75.0-plus pass-blocking grades in all but two seasons of his nine-year career. He figures to help solidify the right side of the Ravens' offensive line, which could be in flux with Orlando Brown Jr.’s trade request.
Zeitler was set to make $12.5 million in 2020 with the Giants, so this new deal qualifies as a sizable pay cut and good value for the Ravens. The average of $7.5 million per year slots him in below the top tier of guards across the NFL.
T Daryl Williams: Three years, $24 million ($13.8 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
Williams doesn’t have an extensive track record of success, but he has been a quality starting option at right tackle in each of his past two full seasons at the position. He ranked third among all qualifying right tackles in PFF grade back in 2017. That season was followed up by an early injury in the 2018 season and a down year across time at four different positions along the offensive line in 2019. Those two campaigns opened the door for the Bills to take a chance on him with a cheap, one-year deal last offseason. The result was a career-high 79.2 PFF grade from Williams as the team’s starting right tackle in 2020.
This contract is less than what players George Fant and Halapoulivaati Vaitai signed for during the 2020 offseason, leaving plenty of room for Buffalo to get value.
LB Matt Milano: Four years, $41.5 million ($23.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
The Bills will keep their linebacker duo of Tremaine Edmunds and Milano in place for at least one more season with this extension. Buffalo covets Milano for clear reasons. He’s developed into one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL, ranking 11th among all qualifiers at the position in coverage grade over the past three seasons.
The question moving forward will be what this means for Edmunds as he nears the end of his rookie deal. The Bills will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option in the coming months, one that would pay him over $12 million in 2022. Few teams have two off-ball linebackers under contract for $10 million-plus per year.
G Jon Feliciano: Three years, $17 million deal (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
Sean McDermott and company have talked about their desire to run the football more effectively in 2021 following their postseason exit this past season. Re-signing Feliciano — the offensive line’s highest-graded run blocker in 2020 — is one way to work toward that goal.
On the other hand, Feliciano did struggle in pass protection, posting just a 46.4 pass-blocking grade in his second season as a full-time starter. He projects as a reasonable starting option at guard, but not necessarily one who can’t be upgraded over after earning sub-65.0 PFF grades in each of the past two seasons as a starter. Feliciano ranks 18th among qualifying right guards in PFF grade since 2019.
With a wave of cuts at the guard position across the NFL, retaining Feliciano at this price may not have been completely necessary for Buffalo. Nevertheless, the team-friendly value of right tackle Daryl Williams’ recent extension makes it more palatable if assessing the offensive line investments holistically.
G Pat Elflein: Three years, $13.5 million ($6 million guaranteed)
Grade: Poor
Things started out well enough for Elflein as a rookie with the Minnesota Vikings back in 2017, but it’s been downhill since then. The former Ohio State Buckeye has been a revolving door in pass protection, failing to clear a 50.0 pass-blocking grade in any of the past three seasons. He is one of just three guards in the league allowing a pressure rate above 8.0% on at least 500 pass-blocking snaps since 2018. It’s difficult to project a major turnaround in 2021.
The Vikings were comfortable waiving Elflein during the 2020 season despite their guards combining for the worst pass-blocking grade in the NFL — a dreadful 37.2 mark across the roster. Carolina apparently values his ability to play multiple positions on the interior, but it’s fair to wonder if Minnesota kept moving him around just to see if he could play anywhere, not because he was solid at several spots.
Carolina is probably still working on a long-term deal for right tackle Taylor Moton and is set to lose left tackle Russell Okung to free agency, making this deal even more of a head-scratcher.
T Cam Erving: Two years, $10 million ($8 million guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
The Panthers needed to add depth to their offensive line given the uncertainty throughout the unit heading into this offseason. Erving certainly provides plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reserve, with over 3,000 career offensive snaps to his name since being drafted in the first round back in 2015.
The problem is that Erving's experience has never come in the form of quality play. A 2020 season in which he started just five games for the Dallas Cowboys before going down with injury represented the best year of his career from a grading standpoint (58.0 overall grade). It was the first time in his NFL career with a PFF grade above 50.0, but it still would have ranked just 36th among qualifying left tackles had he played enough snaps to qualify. Even as a swing tackle, he’s not someone who Carolina should have much confidence in stepping into a starting role should an injury pop up.
With Russell Okung set to hit free agency, it makes sense that the Panthers would want to solidify the tackle position, but they shouldn’t have much faith in Erving providing more than mid-level depth. The signing in a vacuum is fine, but with a handful of superior tackles recently released — Eric Fisher and Riley Reiff among them — you have to wonder if it would have been wise for Carolina to let the market play out a bit before working out a deal with a player who would most likely still be available in the second or even third wave of free agency.
DI Mario Edwards Jr.: Three years, $11.6 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Average
The Bears will be without Edwards for the first two weeks of the 2021 season as he finishes the remainder of his PED suspension, but the team ensured he will remain in Chicago for the foreseeable future with this three-year extension.
He has been a rotational piece along the defensive line at each of his four NFL stops and is coming off a career year this past season with the Bears. Edwards’ 90.1 PFF grade on just 278 defensive snaps marked the first time he cleared a 70.0 overall grade since his rookie 2015 season.
This deal may signal a departure for pending free agent interior defender Roy Robertson-Harris, a converted outside linebacker who has improved each season after signing as an undrafted free agent in 2016.
S John Johnson III: Three years, $33.8 million ($24 million guaranteed)
Grade: Elite
Johnson entered free agency as one of several talented, young players in a deep free agent class. Franchise tags to Justin Simmons, Marcus Williams and Marcus Maye quickly thinned that group, leaving Johnson as a top target for teams eyeing reinforcements at the position.
[Related: S John Johnson III agrees to three-year deal with Cleveland Browns]
There is a lot to like about what he brings to the table. An injury-plagued 2019 season lowered his stock a bit heading into this past year, but Johnson responded with a career-best 85.3 PFF grade in 2020. The 26-year-old now has three seasons with an overall grade above 80.0 in his four NFL seasons. He presents a good fit in Cleveland, but there are few teams where Johnson wouldn’t profile as a strong signing due to his versatility and well-rounded game.
There is plenty of value to be had in the free agent safety market. Three of the most valuable defenders in the NFL in 2020 by PFF WAR (including Johnson at No. 5) were safeties. Despite that, a top-tier safety is significantly cheaper than an elite pass rusher or an outside cornerback. This contract doesn’t even come all that close to testing the top of the safety market. Cleveland cashed in on one of the better value signings of the day so far.
QB Dak Prescott: Four years, $160 million ($126 million guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
This is a tremendous deal for Prescott. However, it’s also a win for Dallas to finally lock up its franchise quarterback to a multi-year extension. Prescott led one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL back in 2019, and he was on pace for an even better season in 2020 prior to his season-ending injury. His 85.2 PFF grade through the first five weeks of the season ranked seventh among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
You can make the argument that this is an overpay for a quarterback who hasn’t yet joined the elite tier of NFL passers, but that is the nature of quarterback contracts. The Cowboys have the necessary talent on offense (when healthy) to be legitimate contenders in the NFC, but that’s only true with Prescott in the fold. Now, they know he will be for at least the next several seasons, barring unforeseen circumstances.
DI Shelby Harris: Three years, $27 million ($15 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
Harris was a top-50 player in PFF’s free agent rankings before teams placed franchise tags or signed free agents. Since stepping into a larger role with Denver in 2017, he has earned four consecutive PFF grades of 75.0 or higher. He ranks 10th among qualifying interior defenders in overall grade during that stretch. Playing in the middle of Vic Fangio’s defense, Harris has been one of the NFL's more underrated defenders.
That makes this contract a strong deal from Denver’s perspective. A $9 million per year salary puts him outside the 20 highest-paid interior defenders in the league despite his play signaling that he should be making that kind of money. With uncertainty surrounding Von Miller’s future in Denver, there is a victory in keeping Harris in place next to Bradley Chubb along Denver’s defensive front.
CB Ronald Darby: Three years, $30 million ($19.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
Darby has graded out at 68.0 or higher in all but one of his six NFL seasons — the lone exception being a disastrous 2019 campaign with Philadelphia. He’s coming off an impressive bounce-back campaign in 2020 with Washington, leading all cornerbacks in pass breakups (15). The biggest concern with Darby is his health after he failed to clear 600 defensive snaps in each of the 2017, 2018 and 2019 seasons. That could be worrisome, as Denver’s other top cornerback, Bryce Callahan, has injury concerns of his own.
The three-year, $30 million deal is right in line with PFF’s prediction, with just $3 million more in guarantees. It’s a reasonable contract — one the 27-year-old Darby should be able to live up to if he can stay healthy in Vic Fangio’s defense. Denver addresses an area of need prior to the draft, leaving the team more options come April.
EDGE Romeo Okwara: Three years, $39 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Okwara was heralded as one of the more underrated free agent edge rushers following a career year in Detroit in 2020. He cleared a 60.0 pass-rushing grade for the first time in his career by a wide margin, ending the campaign with an 84.5 mark. His 61 quarterback pressures were tied with Joey Bosa for the fifth-most of any edge defender in the league.
Detroit is taking the risk that his upward trajectory continues. If it does, this is good value for a young player at a valuable position. However, there is always danger associated with paying a player coming off an outlier season in a contract year.
Okwara’s deal may come in more above our projection than any other this offseason (we had him at three years, $24.75 million) because his sample size of great play is truly just the last six games of 2020. Okwara finished the year on an absolute tear, and a full season with Trey Flowers and him off the edge could help turn Detroit’s defense around in a hurry. Nevertheless, the Lions still need to overhaul their secondary for Okwara and Flowers to have time to get home.
RB Aaron Jones: Four years, $38 million (Up to $48 million; $13 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
With Green Bay drafting A.J. Dillon in the second round last season and then declining to use the franchise tag on Jones this year, many thought Jones' time with the Packers was up. That clearly wasn’t the case, as the two sides came to terms on a new four-year deal that keeps him under contract through 2024.
Jones has been the sixth-highest graded running back in the NFL since entering the league in 2017. He has shown himself to be capable of contributing in a three-down role, even adding value when lined up as a wide receiver in certain situations.
Of course, the value will always be questioned on a running back’s second contract given what recent deals with Todd Gurley II, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott look like in hindsight. The relatively low guaranteed money in Jones’ deal leaves the Packers some wiggle room should things turn south, though.
RB Mark Ingram II: One year, $2.5 million ($0.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Ingram joins a Texans backfield led by David Johnson. The two veterans figure to enter a timeshare following Duke Johnson Jr.‘s release earlier this offseason. Ingram is coming off an injury-impacted 2020 season, but he should still provide solid play for Houston in a complementary role. He earned at least a 66.0 PFF grade on 200-plus offensive snaps every season from 2011 through 2019. He isn’t a dynamic receiver at the position, but he is a capable one.
There isn’t much risk involved for Houston from a contract perspective. The team adds a veteran in the final stages of his career to the running back room for cheap. There just isn’t much upside, either.
WR Andre Roberts: Two years, $6.0 million ($3 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Roberts’ primary contribution to Houston will come on special teams. He profiles as one of the best returners in the business, making three consecutive Pro Bowls for his contributions in that phase of the game. His PFF return grades indicate that is no fluke. Over the past three seasons, only Cordarrelle Patterson has a higher kickoff return grade than Roberts (92.1), and only Nyheim Hines has a higher punt return grade (86.0).
He’s getting up there in age at 33 years old, but there is still reason to believe Roberts can provide some juice in the return game. His deal with Houston is similar to the two-year, $4.6 million contract he signed with Buffalo prior to the 2019 offseason.
DI Maliek Collins: One year, $6 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Collins is coming off the lowest PFF grade of his career with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2020. His 39.2 overall mark was tanked by a 32.2 run-defense grade — an area that has never been Collins' strong suit. His lack of impact as a pass rusher was surprising, though. Collins recorded at least 30 pressures in each of his first four seasons in the NFL, and he was coming off a career-high 77.6 pass-rushing grade with the Cowboys in 2019.
Houston will look for Collins to return to that form in Lovie Smith’s defense. The Texans could certainly use the pass-rushing help following J.J. Watt‘s departure. No one on the team recorded a pressure rate of 10.0% in 2020. This looks like a reasonable dart throw on the part of the Texans to bring in some pass-rushing help on a one-year deal.
DI Roy Robertson-Harris: Three years, $24.4 million ($14 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Robertson-Harris was one of several key rotational pieces along the Bears’ defensive line who was looking for a new deal this offseason. He’ll end up with the team that has more to spend than anyone else in the league.
Robertson-Harris entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2016, slowly increasing his role in each subsequent season before seeing his 2020 season cut short by a shoulder injury. He’s graded at 67.0 or better in each of the past three years, with his best play coming in the run game. He figures to be a favorite to earn a starting job along Joe Cullen’s new defensive front in Jacksonville. If the defense is modeled after the Baltimore Ravens’ defense that Cullen comes over from, it would be a similar base 3-4 defensive end role to the one he had in Chicago.
This isn’t a cheap deal by any means, but the Jaguars have money to spend. Robertson-Harris has shown signs of growth since entering the NFL, and he helps solidify an area of need for the Jaguars.
WR Jamal Agnew: Three years, $21 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
Agnew made the switch from defensive back to wide receiver in 2020, but you have to imagine this signing was more so based on special teams. Agnew has ranked among the top 10 players in the NFL in both kick returns and punt returns since entering the league in 2017. He slots in at fourth in punt return grade (79.2) among players with at least 50 attempts and ninth among the same group in kick return grade (69.4).
The price tag is cause for some hesitation, though. NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reported that it's a three-year deal that maxes out at $21 million with reachable incentives. If Agnew hits that full value, $7 million per year is all of a sudden a lot of money for a player who is unlikely to contribute much on offense. Agnew picked up just 89 receiving yards on 123 routes with Detroit last season.
G Joe Thuney: Five years, $80 Million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
The Chiefs entered the 2021 offseason in need of offensive line help, and the releases of Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz at tackle only solidified that sentiment. Thuney was PFF’s top free agent guard by a sizable margin, he and should help solidify things up front for Patrick Mahomes.
Since entering the league in 2016, Thuney ranks as the fifth-most valuable guard in the NFL, behind only Zack Martin, Quenton Nelson, Brandon Brooks and Shaq Mason. He’s been particularly strong as a pass protector, where he ranks in the 83rd percentile at the position across his five NFL seasons.
Given that Kansas City is one of the NFL's pass-happiest teams, Thuney is the type of player the team should be targeting. Add in his durability (980 snaps in every season of his career), and it’s not difficult to see why he was a top target for the Chiefs.
Still, this earns only an “Above Average” grade because it's a lot of money. Brandon Brooks was the only guard in the league to clear $14 million per year on a multi-year deal prior to this contract that nets $16 million per year for Thuney. For a team that wasn’t swimming in cap space, it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs fill out the rest of their roster. Regardless, this is a significant piece in an area of need.
EDGE Yannick Ngakoue: Two years, $26 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
You know what you’re getting from Ngakoue at this stage of his career. He has been one of the highest-graded pass rushers in the league off the edge since 2017. His 88.7 pass-rushing grade over that four-year span ranks 12th among all players at the position. However, his work as a run defender falls on the opposite end of the spectrum. Ngakoue’s 50.5 run-defense grade since 2017 ranks fourth-worst among 108 edge defenders with at least 1,000 snaps.
Ngakoue came in 14 spots higher than Leonard Floyd and 29 spots higher than Matthew Judon in PFF’s free agent rankings, but the Raiders signed him for a cheaper average-per-year figure than both of them. His pass-rushing ability should help solve one of Las Vegas’ biggest needs in Gus Bradley’s defensive scheme, which relies on the front four to generate pressure.
More of the same from Ngakoue, paired with continued development from Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby, would put the defensive line in a better spot heading into 2021.
C Corey Linsley: Five years, $62.5 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
The top free agent center is off the board, and there is no team that could make better use of his services. The Chargers ended the 2020 season as PFF’s lowest-graded offensive line and could be looking to fill four starting positions. Center was one of those openings following Mike Pouncey’s retirement. PFF’s highest-graded center in 2020 isn't a bad replacement, and he reunites with former Packer Bryan Bulaga.
Linsley put together the best season of his NFL career in 2020, and he has been one of the better centers in the league since Green Bay took him in the fifth round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Across that seven-year span, he ranks fifth in PFF grade among qualifying centers.
His $12.5 million per year average just edges out the deal that Ryan Kelly recently signed with Indianapolis, making Linsley the highest-paid center in the league. That is a deserved accolade, though. It is arguably the most impactful move the Chargers could have made in free agency short of signing Trent Williams, which would have also come with a higher price tag.
CB Michael Davis: Three years, $27 million ($15 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Bigger names have overshadowed Michael Davis in Los Angeles’ secondary — Casey Hayward Jr., Derwin James and Chris Harris Jr., to name a few — but he has been a solid if unspectacular as a starter outside. Davis allowed just an 81.0 passer rating across his past three seasons as a starter, but he was called for 12 defensive holding/pass interference penalties over that span (tied for 12th-most in the league).
Davis has good size and projects to fit well in a Brandon Staley-led defense that already has talent in place. The Chargers’ surprise release of Hayward over the weekend led to a situation where Los Angeles either needed to re-sign Davis or add another starting-caliber outside cornerback this offseason.
This contract isn’t cheap for a player with Davis’ grading profile and track record of production, but re-signing him avoids opening up a glaring need at cornerback.
EDGE Leonard Floyd: Four years, $64 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
The Rams are stuck in one of the NFL's worst projected cap situations, but that didn’t stop them from securing Floyd after his career year with the team in 2020. He set career-high marks in sacks (10.5) and quarterback pressures (45) in his first year in Los Angeles, but his 69.5 PFF grade in 2020 was almost identical to the mark he posted in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons with Chicago (69.6). He still recorded a pressure rate below 10% during the 2020 season.
Floyd profiles as a solid outside linebacker. The Rams can rely on him for decent play against the run, as a pass rusher and in coverage, when needed. The thing is, it’s usually a mistake for a cap-strung team to pay “solid” players $16 million per year. The Rams lack premium draft capital, too. Floyd clearly benefited from the team’s all-in approach around new quarterback Matthew Stafford.
The contract details, once they are released, and how much of the money ends up being guaranteed will play a role in how we should view the signing.
QB Cam Newton: One year, $5 million (Up to $14 million; $3.5 million guaranteed)
Grade: Elite
Looking strictly at Newton's passing numbers in 2020 as the Patriots' starter will tell you a somewhat misleading story. Yes, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns on the year, but his supporting cast has to be a factor when evaluating his performance. Newton ended the season as PFF’s 22nd-ranked quarterback in PFF grade with Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry and Ryan Izzo leading the team in routes run. That overall grade was hurt by a poor finish to the season, as well. Newton’s 79.4 overall grade through Week 11 ranked 13th at the position.
Newton has had trouble staying healthy in recent years, but he’s certainly more talented than the backup quarterback money this contract represents. New England should remain focused on providing more weapons to work with for Newton or whoever else steps in to compete at quarterback — an option that remains on the table despite this signing.
There’s close to zero downside with this move, as a base value of $5 million for Newton is next to nothing. Even if New England makes looks for a starting quarterback via trade or the 2021 NFL Draft, Newton is making reasonable backup quarterback money.
TE Jonnu Smith: Four years, $50 million ($31.3 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
The first big splash of free agency belongs to the New England Patriots. That’s not a sentence we’re used to writing. New England has fielded one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL over the past two seasons, but signing Smith is a step toward correcting that for Cam Newton or whoever ends up starting at quarterback for the team in 2021.
Smith didn't play a featured role in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense since his 2017 third-round selection. However, he has been one of the more effective after-the-catch threats at the position in recent years. His 6.8 yards after the catch per reception over the past two seasons ranks third among all tight ends with at least 100 targets over that span. He ended both of those campaigns with receiving grades north of 77.0. From an athleticism standpoint, there are few tight ends in the league who can match what he brings to the table.
The Patriots have long valued the tight end position more than most franchises, and this deal further emphasizes that approach. New England traded up in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft for tight ends Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, and the team now adds Smith to the mix as the third-highest paid tight end in the NFL. Smith now trails only George Kittle ($15M per year) and Travis Kelce ($14.312M per year) in terms of per-year earnings. If the $31.3 million is fully guaranteed, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported, and not “total guaranteed.” this deal is incredibly strong.
There’s still an edge to be exploited in the tight end market, as Smith’s $12.5 million per year average still wouldn’t rank in the top 20 at the wide receiver position. New England gets its guy potentially ahead of a further boost to the market with Hunter Henry set to test free agency coming off the franchise tag with the Chargers.
DI Davon Godchaux: Two years, $16 million ($9 million guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
The success of Raekwon Davis and Zach Sieler during the 2020 season in Godchaux’s absence made it easier for Miami to part ways with the nose tackle. Godchaux missed the majority of the 2020 season with a biceps injury, but he profiled as a reliable run defender in the three prior seasons as a starter — the kind of player who the Patriots tend to covet on the interior of their defensive line.
Godchaux earned 65.0-plus run-defense grades in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. Just don’t expect much in the way of pass-rushing contribution.
New England has a handful of run-stuffing defensive linemen set to test free agency, including Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler, who the team gave a second-round restricted free agent tender to in 2020. The Patriots continue overhauling the unit, with Godchaux set to command blockers’ attention in the middle while young edge rushers Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings get after the passer.
EDGE Matthew Judon: Four years, $56 million ($32 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Judon entered free agency as one of the more desirable edge rushers following three seasons of quality pass-rushing production in Baltimore. To that point, he ranks among the top 20 players at the position in both total pressures and sacks since 2018.
The concern with giving Judon this kind of contract is that he was a beneficiary of Baltimore’s blitz-heavy scheme, which provided plenty of unblocked and cleanup opportunities. In fact, over 50% of Judon’s pressures have been charted as unblocked or cleanup pressures over the past three seasons. The Patriots represent a strong schematic fit that can provide similar looks at the quarterback, but this is a hefty deal for a player who doesn’t project as an elite one-on-one pass rusher.
Teams across the league were probably happy to see Shaquil Barrett’s contract details come in right at the start of the legal tampering window, agreeing to a four-year, $68 million extension to stay in Tampa. Judon is only a few months younger than Barrett and is also coming off a season playing on the franchise tag. However, Judon did not have nearly the end to his season that Barrett did.
Edge rushers tend to get paid when they hit the market, but this offseason hasn’t followed that trend. It may be a result of the salary cap drop, but it may also signal the league is adjusting a bit after huge contracts have aged quite poorly, such as those for Frank Clark and Dee Ford. This deal comes in slightly under PFF’s projection for Judon (four years, $68 million), but it still sits a bit on the high end when looking at his grading profile.
S Jalen Mills: Four years, $24 million ($9 million guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
One year after re-signing with the Philadelphia Eagles on a one-year, $4 million deal, Mills cashes in on a long-term contract with the biggest buyers of the day thus far. He had his fair share of troubles at cornerback with Philadelphia, but he is coming off a career year after moving to safety in 2020. Mills ranked 29th among all safeties in PFF grade this past season.
However, this fit doesn’t make a whole lot of sense with some of the pieces already on New England’s roster. Mills brings the versatility to play at cornerback if needed, but even in 2020, he graded significantly worse on 200-plus snaps at outside cornerback than anywhere else on the field.
He fits best in a safety/slot role. However, the Patriots already have players Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and the returning Patrick Chung in that area of the field. It’s a pretty big contract for a player who doesn’t profile as a significant upgrade to an already crowded positional group.
WR Nelson Agholor: Two years, $26 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
It was clear that Agholor made himself some money following a strong 2020 campaign with the Raiders, but this contract comes as a bit of a surprise. He put together a career year during the Eagles’ Super Bowl run in 2017 (74.9 overall grade), but it was a downhill slide over the next two seasons before a rebirth of sorts with Las Vegas this past year.
Agholor’s 444 receiving yards on passes of 20-plus yards downfield last season ranked sixth among all receivers across the league. He'll likely take on a vertical role in New England, as well. It’s just tough to see him providing the kind of value that would make a $13 million per year average worth it. That figure places him among the top 20 highest-paid wide receivers as of now.
The details of the contract haven’t yet been released, so this could be an “up to” $26 million scenario, in which case the deal becomes easier to stomach. The one clear takeaway from today’s events is that the Patriots are intent on contending in 2021.
WR Kendrick Bourne: Three years, $22.5 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
Bourne is an interesting projection coming out of a unique San Francisco offense at 25 years old. He played at least 500 offensive snaps in each of the past four years for the 49ers, inching his overall PFF grade forward from 66.6 in 2018 to 69.8 the following year and 72.0 in 2020. He doesn’t necessarily fit into the YAC-monster mold that San Francisco prioritizes in its receiving corps, but he does project as a reliable chain-mover. That’s an archetype New England could use more of at the wide receiver position.
This is now the third free agent addition to the Patriots’ receiving corps, following the signings of Smith at tight end and Agholor at wide receiver. They haven’t added a true No. 1 threat yet, but they have raised the floor of this group with veteran talent. Bourne’s deal, in particular, stands out as a reasonable price to pay for what he could bring to the table in a complementary role.
T James Hurst: Three years, $9 million ($5 million guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
The Saints keep their top reserve offensive lineman in place with this modest three-year signing. Hurst spent time as a starter with the Baltimore Ravens at left tackle, right tackle and left guard across his six years with the team from 2014 to 2019. He played primarily left tackle in reserve duty last season with the Saints. Hurst has developed into a reliable pass protector when on the field, earning a 77.2 pass-blocking grade since 2017. He just won’t be opening too many lanes on the ground, evidenced by his 48.0 run-blocking grade over that same stretch.
Still, that isn’t bad production from a reserve offensive lineman with tackle-guard versatility. He gives the Saints some security should they be unable to keep the duo of Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk in place. This is the type of move around the margins that the Saints are confined to as they continue to work to get under the 2021 salary cap.
LB Jarrad Davis: One year, $7 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
It’s fair to say that Davis did not live up to his first-round billing in Detroit. 2020 marked his first NFL season where he recorded an overall grade above 60.0, but it came in a reduced role on just 329 defensive snaps. Prior to that, struggles as both a run defender and coverage defender led to underwhelming results.
The only reliable aspect to Davis' game was the impact he made as an occasional blitzer, tallying at least 10 quarterback pressures in each of his four seasons. In all, Davis has earned just over 0.1 PFF wins above replacement in his four years in the league — 78th at the position.
The Jets are reportedly shopping 2020 opt-out C.J. Mosley, which should open the door for Davis to see more playing time. The hope will be that a different role in Robert Saleh’s defense can bring out the best in a talented player, but there is little to take from Davis’ experience as a starter early in his career that would suggest this will be a successful experiment. That said, the one-year agreement ensures there isn’t much in the way of long-term risk for New York.
WR Corey Davis: Three years, $37.5 million ($27 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
With top free agent receivers Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson II getting franchise tags, Davis quickly became one of the best options at the position for wide receiver-needy teams. Davis will likely never live up to his top-five selection in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he has shown real signs of improvement over these past few seasons in Tennessee. He’s coming off a 2020 breakout in which his 85.3 PFF grade ranked 10th among 127 qualifying receivers across the league.
Contrary to recent history for the Jets in free agency, this doesn’t appear to be an overpay at first glance. PFF projected Davis for a four-year, $65 million deal this offseason, so this contract leaves plenty of room for value should Davis prove that his 2020 performance wasn’t an anomaly. At worst, he's a solid complementary option alongside Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder for whoever steps in at quarterback next season.
CB Cameron Sutton: Two years, $9 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
The Steelers had a decision to make when it came to Sutton and slot cornerback Mike Hilton. Hilton’s status remains in question, but Sutton will return to Pittsburgh as the more versatile secondary player of the two. He has spent time out wide, in the slot and even at safety over the past two seasons, posting strong PFF coverage grades of at least 73.0 in both seasons. Sutton took on a much larger role in 2020; his 619 defensive snaps nearly matched his snap count across his first three years in the league combined.
Outside corners Joe Haden and Steven Nelson are both entering their final seasons under contract, leaving the door open for Sutton to potentially transition into one of those jobs down the road. At the least, he has a path to playing time both in the slot (if Hilton doesn’t re-sign) and in the box in nickel and dime packages. He has earned an 84.2 PFF grade from the slot since 2019. This is a reasonable price for a young, versatile depth piece who has starting potential.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Bud Dupree likely priced out of contention for the Steelers, Sutton may end up being one of the more valuable players Pittsburgh is able to retain. Now, the clock is ticking on players Hilton, Matt Feiler and Tyson Alualu.
FB Kyle Juszczyk: Five years, $27 million ($10 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
It's rare that we discuss a fullback cashing in during free agency, but Juszczyk is not your typical fullback. His 1,916 offensive snaps over the past four years in San Francisco are over 800 more than any other player at the position in the league.
Juszczyk also comes in as the highest-graded fullback with at least 500 snaps over that span. It may be a dying position, but Juszczyk is pushing against that shift and still provides value to the 49ers’ offense.
The next highest-paid fullback makes $3.25 million per year, and Juszczyk checks in at $5.4 million. While he's an integral part of the San Francisco offense, and it's understandable that the fullback position wouldn't have the most normal market considering not every team even carries one on their roster, it's always important to assess value from a league-wide perspective.
CB Jason Verrett: One year, $5.5 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
If Verrett can stay healthy — a big if considering his extensive injury history — this is tremendous value for the 49ers. He returned to the field as a starter for San Francisco in 2020 and looked reminiscent of the player who was on his way to becoming one of the best cornerbacks in the league before a slew of injuries derailed his career. Verrett ended last season with a 77.6 overall grade, ranking eighth among all qualifying players at the position.
This contract provides some stability for the 49ers in an area of need due to fellow cornerback starters Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams also hitting free agency. It allows for Verrett to set himself up for a larger deal next offseason with another healthy year of strong play while carrying little long-term risk for San Francisco.
EDGE Samson Ebukam: Two years, $12 million (TBD guaranteed)
Grade: Below Average
We’ve seen the kind of boost Aaron Donald has provided to Los Angeles' free agent edge defenders in the past, but Ebukam hasn’t done a whole lot as a starter in that system over the past four seasons. The 2020 season marked a career-high 68.3 pass-rushing grade for Ebukam. It also came with an uncharacteristically poor showing against the run. His 48.9 grade versus the run was over 15 grading points worse than his previous career-low.
This stands out as an interesting move for a team with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead already on the edge. Plus, the 49ers just restructured Dee Ford’s contract. Barring injuries, it’s difficult to see Ebukam cracking much more than a rotational role with the team. It looks to be a relatively expensive insurance policy for Ford, who is now making $12 million per year himself.
LB Lavonte David: Two years, $25 million ($20 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very Good
As Tom Brady said in a recent Instagram post, the Buccaneers are keeping the band together. Retaining David was a big step in that process. Devin White received a majority of the praise for the Buccaneers last season, but David remains the leader of that group. The nine-year veteran has played some of the best football of his career in recent years.
Since 2017, David ranks third among qualifying linebackers in overall grade, behind only Bobby Wagner and Luke Kuechly, and first in coverage grade. This is certainly a reasonable price for that kind of top-of-the-position production.
EDGE Shaquil Barrett: Four years, $68 million ($36 million guaranteed)
Grade: Very good
After years of strong play without the opportunity to put up big-time numbers as a starter in Denver, Barrett has proven to be one of the more consistent edge defenders in the league across two seasons in Tampa Bay.
He has earned 78.0-plus pass-rushing grades in back-to-back years while also posting solid marks against the run. Additionally, Barrett leads all players at the position in total quarterback pressures since 2019 (157). Tampa Bay should feel confident that it will get strong play from him over the course of this deal.
[Related: Tampa Bay Buccaneers edge Shaquil Barrett agrees to 4-year, $72 million deal]
The Buccaneers made it clear at their Super Bowl parade that they were going to do everything in their power to pay Barrett fair market value and keep intact a defense that dominated the postseason. With Lavonte David re-signed to a two-year, $25 million deal that contained three void years for salary cap purposes, and with Tom Brady signing an extension that had void years in it, Tampa Bay was able to make things work with Barrett after all.
Barrett arrived in Tampa on a one-year, $4 million deal in 2019 after getting his career underway as an undrafted free agent in Denver. He put up 19.5 sacks, and Tampa placed the franchise tag on him for 2020. Now, he signs for $17 million per year and finally gets his big payday. It still feels like he may have taken a tiny bit less money just to stick and chase a third Super Bowl ring.
TE Rob Gronkowski: One year, $10 million ($8 million guaranteed)
Grade: Above Average
Gronkowski was expected back in Tampa Bay for at least one more run with Tom Brady, and this one-year deal makes that official. He isn't the same dominant force that once helped propel the New England Patriots, but Gronkowski still ended 2020 with a top-10 receiving grade at the position (78.4). That’s in line with his performance in his final year with the Patriots back in 2018. He’s still a massive target who will win more contested-catch situations than he loses. To that point, Gronkowski hauled in an impressive 13 of 19 contested targets in 2020.
The deal was reported as up to $10 million, with incentives covering the final $2 million. It puts the Hall of Fame-bound tight end in line with the deal Jimmy Graham signed with Chicago last offseason. That’s not a bad value for a player of Gronkowski’s caliber. The Buccaneers continue to make all the moves necessary to run it back in 2021.
DL Denico Autry: Three years, $21.5 million ($9 million guaranteed)
Grade: Average
Autry transitioned from an interior role earlier in his career to an edge role these past few seasons with the Colts. In 2020, 435 of his 675 defensive snaps came from outside the right tackle. A move back inside may be coming in Tennessee’s base 3-4 defense, but Autry has shown the ability to win both inside and outside.
He has been a solid starter in each of the past four seasons, grading between 63.7 and 71.0 in each campaign. Autry also fills a clear area of need for Tennessee after there was little clarity on who would contribute along the defensive front beyond Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry III.
One had to assume that Tennessee was positioning itself to be active in the defensive free agent market after releasing Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro and declining to re-sign Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis. Signing Autry to this deal is a decent first step. Now, the Titans will likely look to make a splash and add a disruptive outside linebacker among the names still remaining in free agency.
Check out more 2021 PFF free agency content:
PFF Free Agent Rankings | Top 250 Free Agents | Primers For All 32 Teams
Published On: Mon, 15 Mar 2021 11:05:13 GMT
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